The Influence of Gross Domestic Product and Inflation on the Growth of Islamic Banking Assets in Indonesia

Abstract

Islamic banking is an important part of the national financial system that plays a role in collecting and channeling funds to the public based on sharia principles. The growth of Islamic banking assets is one of the indicators that can reflect the development of the industry's capacity in performing its intermediation functions and responding to national economic dynamics. However, the growth of these assets is not only influenced by internal banking factors but is also closely related to changes in macroeconomic conditions. This study aims to analyze the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, the Benchmark Interest Rate (BI Rate), and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar on the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia during the 2021–2025 period. The research uses a quantitative approach with an associative design and utilizes quarterly secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency, and the Financial Services Authority. The analysis is conducted using multiple linear regression with the assistance of IBM SPSS Statistics. Prior to hypothesis testing, the data are analyzed through a series of classical assumption tests to ensure the feasibility of the regression model. Hypothesis testing is carried out through partial tests (t), simultaneous tests (F), and the coefficient of determination. The research results indicate that simultaneously GDP, inflation, BI Rate, and exchange rate have a significant effect on the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. The Adjusted R² value of 0.744 shows that 74.4% of the variation in the growth of Islamic banking assets can be explained by the four macroeconomic variables used in the model, while the remaining 25.6% is explained by factors outside the research model. Partially, GDP has a positive and significant effect on the growth of Islamic banking assets. Conversely, inflation, BI Rate, and exchange rate have a negative and significant effect on asset growth. These findings indicate that the development of Islamic banking assets is strongly related to the dynamics of macroeconomic conditions.